Well, we did it. We’re all back and in good health and not yet too inundated with adult responsibilities to make time for this silly game called fantasy football. Welcome to Year 8!
In years past Brad and I spent a lot of time posting one of a variety of those auto-generated “who had the best draft” things. I’m making a conscious decision to steer clear of those this year as they’re really just an index of a lot of people’s best guesses as to how the season will turn out, which is undeniably provocative but not usually meaningful. The NFL re-invents itself every year and a bunch of assumptions we spent the summer cultivating are debunked in the first week or two. Fantasy Football is like poker; there’s only so much edge you can give yourself by playing the odds, in the end we’re subject to the cards that fall.
Right now you’re probably thinking “Wow, Evan must’ve been last on those post-draft rankings, eh?”. Maybe. That’s not important.
In lieu of writing up full draft rankings, I thought I’d identify one pick I like and dislike from each of you and will wrap up with Week 1 predictions. After we’ve seen some of our sleepers flame out spectacularly in week one Brad will tell us all why our team sucks right around this time next week, so stay tuned! On to the exercise:
👍❤️ Season 8 Likes and Dislikes 👎💔
Brad
👍: Dameon Pierce (8.6) – If the draft were a few days later he probably would have been gone by the end of round six. He’s the presumptive starter in Houston, and though they suck (and he may suck), you didn’t have to pay a premium to find out.
👎 Aaron Jones (2.6) – I don’t hate this, but I’m an AJ Dillon truther. I think Saquon Barkley or Javonte Williams were more worthy here.
Dan
👍 Tony Pollard (7.2) – If every team operated purely as a meritocracy Tony Pollard would probably be starting. As long as Jerry Jones is still around shuffling around playing pocket pool and terrorizing Hooters waitresses that probably won’t be the case in Dallas. But since you own Zeke this was a prudent handcuff.
👎 Kenny Golladay (12.11) – Probably inconsequential given how late this was, but I think a young lottery ticket would’ve been preferable over Golladay, who seems unlikely to live up to the billing with the G men.
Evan
👍 Darnell Mooney (6.12) – The Bears will be losing a lot and they have to throw to someone. Mooney gives off Miami Dolphins era Jarvis Landry vibes, high floor with great volume.
👎 Jamar Jackson (5.1) – This self-proclaimed AJ Dillon truther had a chance to get him at 5.1 but reached for an unvaccinated QB instead. This was a bit of an overpay.
Hannah
👍 Allen Robinson (5.8) – He’s been hyped up all summer long and for good reason. I think he’s another victim of a totally inept Bears coaching staff nd you get him at a nice discount. That organization is trash through and through. I expect a nice bounce back now that Mr. Robinson is on a capable team.
👎 Leonard Fournette (2.5) – This is a minor quibble, but there’s a few RBs I would have taken before Lenny. The Bucs interior offensive line was decimated with injuries in camp, Tom Brady left the team for a couple weeks only to come back looking like a ghoul (after previously attempting to bolt to Miami this offseason) … I’m wary of paying a premium for any Buc this year.
Ivan
👍 Gabriel Davis (5.11) – A lot of our league mates reached quite a bit for the trendiest “sleepers” in the draft this year, which kind of nullifies their “sleeper” status. Gabe Davis is someone just about everyone is expecting major strides from and you got him at a reasonable draft position. I like it.
👎 Justin Tucker (12.2) – You have a tendency to seek out premium defenses and kickers, but in this case I think you passed on a dozen or so good lottery tickets for a kicker who may or may not move the needle appreciably for you.
Josh
👍 Trey Lance (10.4) – Another darling of the fantasy football expert community, I think this was pretty good value for someone who can potentially give you 2021 Jalen Hurts upside.
👎 Jarvis Landry (11.9) – Similar to my critique of Dan’s Golladay pick, I think Jarvis Landry is a known commodity on a team he’ll probably be third or fourth in line for targets on. If Michael Thomas is out, he has play; otherwise I think taking a chance on a younger player might have been the move.
Kevin
👍 Adam Thielen (6.10) – I think I shared this sentiment with you on draft day, but I’m drinking the Vikings Kool-Aid this year. Yeah, he’s getting old, but his red zone targets have been tops at his position the last several years. I think this is a great value.
👎 Josh Jacobs (4.10) –A new front office has taken over with no allegiance to Jacobs and they chose not to extend him this off-season. This has created two schools of thought: a) they’ll ride him into the ground this year since he’s a free agent; and b) They don’t think he’s all that capable and will adopt a committee approach with Zamir White, Ameer Abdullah et al. I think B is the more likely scenario, but we shall see.
Kimi
👍 Kyler Murray (6.1) – After the well-publicized “independent study” clause in his new contact was leaked to the media (and later removed after the media an fans ran wild with it), I think that may have convinced Murray to focus more on his job and less on Call of Duty. His natural talent is undeniable, but some brilliant citizen of the internet published data that showed correlation between Kyler’s poor play and a Call of Duty double-XP weekends. I think he’s going to put the controller down and will to live up to where you drafted him.
👎 DeVonta Smith (8.1) – I am not sure you’ll ever feel too confident playing Smith as the #2 option on a low-volume passing offense. I think the next three WRs off the board (Christian Kirk, Tyler Lockett, Robert Woods) will outperform him.
Mia
👍 Chris Godwin (7.5) – I’m already on record as not loving the Bucs this year, but Godwin’s injury doesn’t appear to be as bad as it looked on draft day. I think this will end up working out well for you.
👎 Evan McPherson (12.8) – See: Justin Tucker
Richie
👍 Hollywood Brown (5.10) and Christian Kirk (8.3) – I couldn’t decide between these two, I think they’re both going to outperform those draft positions. You have a potential embarrassment of riches at the WR position.
👎 Breece Hall (4.3) – The Jets are still such a bad team. I could see Hall taking over the early down work firmly by mid-season, but Michael Carter will probably be in with the two-minute offense and third down, which caps Hall’s upside considerably in PPR. I’m getting Isiah Crowell vibes from this guy.
Tina
👍 Brandon Aiyuk (9.4) – Aiyuk’s talent is evident. He’s a really gifted football player. He’s out of the coach’s doghouse and came on strong in the second half of the season. Trey Lance’s inability to throw the ball efficiently might limit his upside, but the 9th round price tag is worth it in my opinion.
👎 Dalton Schultz (4.9) – I think fourth round is a bit rich for someone like Dalton Schultz, who has the opposite problem of Branon Aiyuk; he’s in a good situation to succeed thanks to the offense he plays in, but possesses an average NFL skillset. There were a few very strong WR2’s available that may have been better picks at that spot.
Week One Predictions:
Richie vs. Drew
Well, neither of you have even come up with a team name yet, so I’m rooting for a tie. Have some pride, gentlemen. Looking at the rosters more closely, I’m giving Drew the decided edge here, 133-109.
InIt4Snacks vs. Kevin’s Little Beauties
This is a tough call as both rosters are strong. I’m giving Kevin the slight edge as I think Denver’s D/ST goes off against the lowly Seahawks, 136-128.
Hannah vs. Not a Penny More
Ivan has a number of players in powerful offenses going up against pretty average teams. I think a couple big performances from his skill position players put him over the top 126-120.
Samuel W Jackson vs. Ready to Get Hurts Again
We both have some exceptional matchups this week, but I am giving Kristina the nod primarily because I think Hurts and Henry have monster weeks for you. 140-127.
Kimi vs. Dan
I like Kimi’s team this week. Dan’s best players have some tough draws. If Diggs gets the better of Jalen Ramsey a few times I think she wins 133-124.
Mr Unliiiiimited vs. Josh
Though I’m automatically inclined to favor the person who has named his team, looking at this objectively I predict a big win from Brad. As I publish this George Kittle sounds doubtful for Sunday and who knows the status of Michael Thomas’ hamstring? Russell “Lets Ride” Wilson is going to rub his sweaty little coin purse all over the face of the Seahawks and Brad takes week 1 handily 136-115.
Best of luck everyone!
Love,
Your Commissioners